Experimentations With Odds Part 2
Category: Poker Strategy
In this instance I decided to put one of the classic heads up, all in, scenarios to the test (Ad,Kc) versus (Qh,Qs) this is a situation which can significantly improve, or utterly destroy a players tournament, and accepted odds calculators show for these types of hands, results as follows. The pocket Queens hand should win against Ace King 56.99% of the time, with the Ace King winning 42.66% of the time, and the other circumstances resulting in a tie.
After taking the time to deal one hundred boards with these hands three times over, and then taking the average, with these two hole cards going head to head I found my results actually came out as (Ad,Kc) beating (Qh,Qs) 51% of the time, and (Qh,Qs) winning 49% of the time. Perhaps this is why it sometimes seems that your pocket pair doesn?t hold up against two over cards as often as it should, in theory it should win more often than it loses, but in practice this doesn?t seem to be the case.
Of course you might be able to say that it was just luck playing it’s part and things may have evened themselves out over a thousand hands, but I am not entirely convinced. I can recall two hands during the test when a Queen came out on the board and neither the Ace or King paired, I wonder if the odds claculations would chalk this down as a win for the (Q,Q). The fact was of course that the Queen came out, as well as a ten and a Jack, giving the (A,K) a straight and winning the hand, I find it difficult to believe that a simple calculation can take every variable into account. You can take these test results however you wish but they certainly show an interesting trend which I may have to re-test in my own time at a later date to see if I discover the same results.